The official exchange rate of the hryvnia against the dollar continued to decline in January, primarily due to seasonal factors. However, the depreciation of the hryvnia was not rapid; in recent days, there has been a gradual increase in currency supply, and the National Bank of Ukraine maintains full control over the situation, stated Vladimir Lepushinsky, the director of the monetary policy and economic analysis department.
"The situation in the cashless segment of the currency market is stable. The National Bank has sufficient tools and resources to maintain the stability of the currency market," he said while commenting to the Interfax-Ukraine agency on the currency market situation.
The department director reminded that as of January 1, 2025, the volume of international reserves of the NBU reached a record high of $43.8 billion, while at the beginning of the full-scale invasion, they were below $30 billion.
According to Lepushinsky, the market's resilience was well demonstrated in December 2024, when, despite significant net demand for cashless currency amid seasonal increases in budget expenditures and business operations at year-end, the hryvnia weakened against the dollar by only 1%. The exchange rate against the euro remained almost unchanged, considering the strengthening of the US dollar against the euro in global markets, added the NBU representative.
He noted that the situation in the cash segment of the currency market is also under control.
"There is no currency shortage or frantic demand for foreign currency. The average daily volume of net cash currency purchases by the population slightly increased to $57 million in January 2025 from $54 million in December 2024," the department director indicated.
He stated that the financial system has sufficient currency liquidity, including cash, to meet customer demand for foreign currency: the volume of cash currency in bank vaults as of January 10 was about $1 billion, which corresponds to the figures from 2024.
"At the same time, in January, the difference between the cash and official exchange rates slightly increased. However, according to the NBU, this phenomenon is temporary given the substantial capacity of banks to meet demand for cash currency at a rate close to the official one," noted Lepushinsky.
He emphasized that the National Bank will continue to ensure the stability of the currency market, meaning that exchange rate fluctuations will be moderate and will not threaten the inflation trend in 2025 or the goal of achieving 5% inflation in the coming years.
The department director added that a crucial task for the NBU is to maintain the attractiveness of hryvnia instruments for savings. He pointed out that currently, interest rates on hryvnia deposits and government bonds exceed the expected inflation.
"Moreover, by the end of 2024, higher interest rates on corresponding hryvnia instruments compensated for the hryvnia's depreciation against the US dollar by 10.6% and against the euro by 4%. The National Bank will continue to make efforts to ensure that savings instruments in the national currency remain attractive," Lepushinsky concluded.
As reported, since the beginning of 2025, the official exchange rate of the hryvnia has weakened by approximately 0.5%, but on Monday, the NBU strengthened it by 1.5 kopecks – to 42.2692 UAH/$1.