The economy is projected to grow by 4% by the end of 2024, an increase from the predicted 3.7% in July, and by 4.3% for 2025, compared to the previously expected 4.1%, according to the updated macroeconomic forecast from the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU).
"(…) a smaller-than-expected energy deficit and slightly higher yields of early grain crops allowed the NBU to raise its forecast for real GDP growth in 2024 to 4%," the regulator stated in a press release on Thursday.
The National Bank links its forecast for Ukrainian economic growth of 4.3-4.6% in 2025-2026 to substantial budgetary stimuli backed by significant volumes of international financing.
In contrast, the July forecast anticipated GDP growth of 4.8% by the end of 2026.
Contributing factors to this forecast include increased household incomes, a rise in agricultural production, and steady external demand.
As noted by the regulator, the recovery of Ukraine's economic growth has been negatively impacted by Russian attacks on energy infrastructure, a resurgence of migration, and a shortage of labor resources.
Nonetheless, it is highlighted that real GDP continued to grow in both the second and third quarters of 2024.