Trump stated that the U.S. would like to receive rare earth metals from Ukraine in exchange for defense assistance. This statement is currently being discussed in the media, and whether it will be implemented in practice remains uncertain.
In this situation, we would like to highlight just one aspect related to this issue: to produce various types of missiles that may be needed for a war against China, the U.S. is currently forced to import rare earth metals from China, which only exacerbates the resource dependency of the American defense industry.
Here, we will base our discussion on the fact that in January 2023, the American analytical institution CSIS published results from modeling potential scenarios of war between the U.S. and China in the Pacific region. It noted that within just 2-3 weeks of such a conflict, Americans might expend a minimum of 5,000 cruise missiles of various types, including 4,000 air-launched AGM-158 missiles, along with 400 units each of Tomahawk and Harpoon anti-ship missiles.
Of course, similar calculations were also made regarding potential expenditures of surface-to-air missiles, particularly naval SM-6 and PAC-2 and PAC-3 for the "land-based" Patriot missile system, and there too, the discussion involves a potential figure in the thousands of units.
However, the problem here is that to manufacture the same quantity of new missiles, the American defense industry theoretically may require a minimum of 20-25 months, or an average of 2.4 years. However, one crucial condition for this is the availability of resources.
CSIS analysts warned that in the event of a full-scale war in the Pacific region, the electronics manufacturing industry on the island of Taiwan could be particularly affected, which in turn could leave the American defense industry entirely without resources to replenish its missile stockpiles.
In this context, it is logical to raise the question that the production of various missiles for the U.S. in preparation for war against China should be initiated proactively, that is, in advance. But for this to be realized, it is necessary to "unclog" the bottlenecks in the supply chains, and here it specifically hinges on the fact that the American defense industry is dependent on rare earth metal supplies from China.
Moreover, it is worth emphasizing that since 2018, the U.S. military has received directives from Congress to systematically reduce its dependence on external supplies of materials and technologies, particularly from China. However, the results of 2023 showed that American military efforts in this regard have made very little progress, as, for instance, research institutions within the Pentagon and the U.S. Air Force have even managed to increase their technological dependency on China.
Everything outlined above can vividly illustrate why Trump expressed interest in rare earth metals from Ukraine, yet it still leaves open the practical question of whether this statement will be realized.