The total level of natural gas reserves in Ukraine's underground storage facilities (USHF) stands at 8.9 billion cubic meters, reported former Energy Minister Olga Buslavets on Facebook at the end of last week.
"The total level of natural gas reserves in Ukraine's USHF is 8.9 billion cubic meters (…), which is 24% lower than last year (considering 0.08 billion cubic meters of gas from non-residents)," she wrote.
Thus, based on the former minister's previous information on Facebook, gas reserves in USHF have decreased by 8.2% since December 31 of last year, down from 9.7 billion cubic meters. Accordingly, as of January 4, 2025, USHF reserves were at 9.5 billion cubic meters, and on January 10, they stood at 9.2 billion cubic meters.
According to her data, the stated gas reserves as of the end of last week included 4.1 billion cubic meters of long-term storage gas, considering gas in temporarily uncontrolled territories, as well as 0.6 billion cubic meters of active long-term storage gas that has been reclassified as "buffer gas."
"Daily gas consumption in Ukraine, due to above-normal temperatures in recent days, fluctuates around 110 million cubic meters per day, which requires withdrawals from USHF of up to 60 million cubic meters per day," Buslavets noted.
As per her information, with the completion of gas transit from the Russian Federation through Ukraine, a more rapid decrease in reserves in European USHF is observed, which may intensify competition in the European and Asian markets for spot liquefied natural gas (LNG) volumes to meet the mandatory USHF volume in Europe by November 1, 2025, at a level of 90%. In particular, the loss of Ukrainian transit will lead to additional imports to Europe of more than 15 billion cubic meters of LNG per year.
In her Facebook post on December 31, the former minister assessed the level of gas reserves in USHF at the end of last year as not critical for passing the heating season due to reduced consumption. Specifically, she estimated that Naftogaz of Ukraine's deficit could be covered by purchasing gas on the Ukrainian Energy Exchange (UEE) - as of December 1, 2024, gas reserves in the commercial segment amounted to 1.5 billion cubic meters.
"However, the risks of new missile strikes on infrastructure facilities and additional demand for 'Gas for Power' require extra insurance in the form of imports," she emphasized.
As reported, the former head of the Gas Transmission System Operator of Ukraine, Sergey Makogon, stated in December 2024 that he considers it advisable for Naftogaz of Ukraine to start importing natural gas from January 2025 to prevent additional drawdowns from gas storage facilities until the end of the winter months.
He predicted a possible increase in gas consumption in the event of cold weather this winter compared to the heating season of 2023-2024, including due to the growth in the share of gas generation, by 10% - to 7.37 billion cubic meters. According to his calculations, at the same time, Ukrainian USHF will be able to provide access to 7.79 billion cubic meters of gas, which means Ukraine could exit the heating season with nearly empty USHF.