NEC "Ukrenergo" anticipates an annual increase in electricity consumption of approximately 2% during the post-war period, aiming to return to pre-war levels within 15 years, albeit with a different energy mix, reported Vitaly Zaychenko, the Director of the Management of the Unified Energy System of Ukraine and a board member of the company.
"In considering the future energy mix, we base our projections on economic forecasts from the Ministry of Economy, which are quite optimistic for the post-war period, predicting a GDP growth of 5-7%. This translates to about a 2% increase in electricity consumption in our estimates, and we understand that in 15 years we will return to pre-war consumption levels, but it will be entirely different: both the structure and the consumers will change," Zaychenko stated during a thematic discussion on the development of Ukraine's energy sector hosted by Energy Club, which was streamed online, as reported by a correspondent from the internet portal "Energy Reform".
According to him, a higher level of energy efficiency should be expected first and foremost, as it is one of the strategic goals of the state to ensure economic efficiency.
Zaychenko noted that one of the main factors influencing the energy mix is decarbonization.
"We understand that the state has committed to closing thermal generation that does not meet environmental standards and emissions requirements. However, if significant changes are not made to this decarbonization program, we will lose a considerable amount of thermal generation after 2025 that will need to be replaced," explained the chief dispatcher of the Unified Energy System of Ukraine.
The second issue concerning the formation of the energy mix he identified is the increase in renewable energy generation, indicating that by 2030, the capacity of solar power plants, both industrial and residential, could rise to 11,000 MW (currently about 6,000 MW - ER).
He stated that this is a natural process because technologies are becoming cheaper, similar to wind energy, the development of which is currently hampered only by the war.
At the same time, he pointed out that the next influencing factor on the energy mix will be the need for balancing the energy system.
"To change this mix and be prepared for challenges, the energy system must be flexible. That’s why we are conducting competitions for ancillary services, primarily involving gas generation and energy storage systems (ESS). They are also becoming cheaper; this is a global trend, and we need to promote the development of ESS," asserted the director of the management of the Unified Energy System.
He also highlighted that the deadline for applications in the first competition for new generating maneuverable capacity of a total of 700 MW ends on February 28, but "Ukrenergo" will not stop there, as it requires about 1.7 GW of such capacities, which, according to him, will ensure sufficient flexibility for the energy system over the next five years.
Furthermore, Zaychenko raised the issue of decommissioning not only outdated thermal power plants but also blocks of nuclear power plants that have already had their operational periods extended.
"They need to be replaced with dynamic, reliable, relatively inexpensive baseload electricity. Energoatom has outlined plans, but I hope technologies will evolve, and those small modular reactors (SMRs) that the world is talking about will be implemented over time. There are plans, not only from our state, to replace blocks of the same thermal power plants with SMRs because there are already sites that have a ready scheme for power output," described the situation as a board member of NEC.
He also pointed to the relevance of hydrogen technologies as a balancing tool for the energy system since ESS and hydroelectric power plants will not be able to fully cope with these tasks. Additionally, he emphasized the prospects for developing interconnectors with Europe for electricity exchange. According to him, these exchanges may not always work out because surpluses and deficits can occur simultaneously, but "there are quite a few periods when we can profitably exchange electricity."
As reported, the first nuclear reactors that Ukraine will decommission will be the VVER-440 reactors of the Rivne NPP - units No. 1 and No. 2 (commissioned in 1980 and 1981), which had their operational periods extended in December 2010 by 20 and 25 years, respectively - until 2030 and 2035. The Rovno NPP-3 (commissioned in 1986) also had its operational period extended in July 2018 by 20 years - until 2038.
The operational period of the Pivdennoukrainsk NPP-1 (in operation since 1982) was extended by 10 years in December 2023 - until 2033, while in December 2015, the Pivdennoukrainsk NPP-2 (since 1985) was extended until 2025, and in December 2019, the Pivdennoukrainsk NPP-3 (since 1989) until 2029.
Thus, after 30-40 years of operation, the operational periods of six power units in the territory controlled by Ukraine have been extended by another 10, 20, and 25 years.
Khmelnytskyi NPP-1 was commissioned in 1987, Khmelnytskyi NPP-2 and Rivne NPP-4 in 2004, respectively, and the first thirty-year operation phase, after which a decision on extending the operational period is considered, has not yet been completed.