The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised its growth forecast for the Ukrainian economy in 2025 downward, cutting it by 0.5 percentage points (p.p.) from the previous estimate to a range of 2-3%, as stated in the Fund's press release following the seventh review of the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) program.
"Real GDP growth is projected at 3.5% for 2024, but it is expected to slow to 2-3% in 2025, reflecting adverse factors such as labor market constraints, damage to energy infrastructure, and the ongoing war in Ukraine," the release noted after reaching a staff-level agreement (SLA) on Friday.
Earlier this week, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) downgraded its growth forecast for Ukraine's economy in 2025 to 3.5%, while in September of last year, it had anticipated a growth rate of 4.7%.
As reported, the World Bank (WB) in its "Global Economic Prospects" published on January 17 lowered its GDP growth forecast for Ukraine in 2025 to 2% from 6.5% in the June report, but improved its outlook for 2026 to 7% from 5.1%.
The National Bank of Ukraine has also adjusted its forecasts. Considering security risks and the challenging labor market situation, the NBU at the end of January reduced its real GDP growth forecast for 2025 from 4.1% to 3.6%, while the state budget for 2025 is based on a GDP growth estimate of 2.7%.